The Hollywood Reporter.
Fox's J.J. Abrams thriller "Fringe" and CBS' Jerry Bruckheimer procedural drama "Eleventh Hour" will be the highest-rated new shows, while NBC's "Kath & Kim" and CBS' "Worst Week" will prove to be weak links in their respective comedy blocks.Sci Fi Wire summarizes Horizon Media's report with:
That's according to an annual television report by Horizon Media that includes speculative estimates of how every broadcast show will fare in the fall.
The analysis contained some expected claims, such as those that established hits such as NBC's Heroes will continue to rule their time periods.To recap, it's not clear whether this is a story because THR decided to run with it, or because Horizon Media's forecasts actually matter. Suffice it to say, accurately predicting that Fringe will be a ratings winner isn't rocket science. However, if Sci Fi Wire's characterization of the report is accurate, it tempers Fringe's prospects by further predicting that as a new show, it won't win the 18-49 demographic in its time period. While predicting that Fringe will be a hit doesn't raise any eyebrows around these parts, saying it won't beat out the competition does.
But there also were some surprises. In general, the report was skeptical about how new shows in general would stack up against competitors; not one new show is expected to win its time period in the adults 18-49 demographic.
So who is Fringe's competition on Tuesday nights? Going off The Futon Critic's Fall Grid:
- ABC: Dancing With The Stars results show.
- CBS: The Mentalist.
- NBC: The Biggest Loser.
DWTS: Never mind that Dancing With The Stars is tired, does anyone really watch the hour-long results show? All I can say is even before I stopped watching DWTS two or three seasons ago, I never suffered the hour-long results show. So, DWTS is no competition for Fringe.
The Mentalist: The who? Doesn't matter. TM is another "new" show, and this is an exercise in debunking Horizon Media's prediction that Fringe won't beat out the established competition.
TBL: I'll admit to watching The Biggest Loser . . . on DVR, because, honestly, with all the commercials, product placements and post commercial recapping of what took place before the commercial break, TBL is unwatchable in real time. To make matters worse for TBL, FOX will be running even fewer commercials during Fringe than normal, making Fringe TBL's antithesis in regards to real time watchability.
Based on the above analysis alone, we predict the freshman show Fringe will own the 18-49 demographic in its time period.